At any given moment, with regards to these things, you have an [ ice cream / murder / temperature ] state and causation cannot be proven until measured against the next [ ice cream / murder / temperature ] state, which implies a state in the theoretical domain (sometimes referred to as... dum dum dum... the future) that does not exist: that theoretical projection of differences measured between past states and present states into states that 'haven't happened'. But to some large extent this is unsubstantiated.

Put an empty bucket on a porch and let it sit there for two years. After two years you fill it up with apples. All data over the course of two years seems to imply that the bucket will remain empty. The difference between the [ bucket / apple ] state at time zero and the [ bucket / apple ] state at time one year is no apples. Two years later... apples!! What about the previous two years implies that the bucket will be filled with apples?

Some would probably say that you put the apples in the bucket, so you have to include you in the two year state span. So now we have a new state criteria... [ bucket / apples / you ]. What about you over the course of two years implies that you will put apples in the bucket? The fact that you live on an orchard? The fact that apples exist?? If apple trees didn't exist, then you would not have been able to put them in the bucket. If there wasn't any dirt, then the apple trees wouldn't have grown apples. Okay, fine. New state! [ bucket / apples / you / trees / dirt ]

Wait... where are we going? Where does this end? What relies upon what to cause what?

[bucket / apples / you / trees / dirt / sun / rain / atmosphere / planet / energy / space / matter ]

uhh...

[ universe ]

What about the state of the universe implies that there will be apples in the bucket? What do you have left to compare?